Report
Energy Sector Headwinds: AI Demand and Global Oil Market Uncertainty
Published May 11, 2026
Commercial Commercial Insights Credit & Economic Trends Economic & Market Insights
U.S. small businesses entered Q1 2026 navigating a more complex and constrained operating environment shaped by slowing economic growth, rising energy costs, and tightening credit conditions. The Experian Small Business Index™ declined 5.5 points in February to 48.8, reflecting near-term softening, but remains above year-ago levels and within its historical range, signaling underlying stability.
Macroeconomic conditions are creating some headwinds. GDP growth rebounded to 2.0% in Q1 after the Q4 government shutdown but was below market expectations. Inflation re-accelerated to 3.3% in March, driven in part by rising energy prices following geopolitical disruptions in global oil markets. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz contributed to a sharp increase in oil prices, raising transportation and input costs across industries. At the same time, consumer confidence declined to a historic low of 49.8, indicating growing caution among households and increasing risk for consumer-facing businesses.
Credit conditions reflect a widening divergence between supply and demand. According to the Federal Reserve's Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey, lenders continue to tighten underwriting standards even as demand for commercial credit is expected to increase. This dynamic is likely to constrain access to capital, particularly for smaller or higher-risk borrowers.
Despite these headwinds, small business formation remains strong, with new business applications exceeding historical averages. However, sentiment has weakened. Expectations for improved business conditions declined sharply, and capital investment activity has slowed, reflecting elevated uncertainty and cautious planning.
Download Report
This site is protected by reCAPTCHA and the Google Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Thank you
Your report should open up in a new window.
Report
Q3 2026 Lending Conditions Chartbook
Explore economic conditions and consumer credit trends shaping the lending environment in Q3 2026.
- Economic and labor market indicators, inflation and interest rates
- Lending standards, credit demand and originations across major products
- Delinquency trends by product, borrower segment and lender type
Tip Sheet
One Partner, From Placement to Payment
The right data, in the right order is helping collections teams improve recovery across their portfolio. In our latest tip sheet, learn how to:
- Screen accounts for special handling before outreach
- Prioritize accounts by recovery and payment likelihood
- Improve contact strategies with current identity data
- Scale recovery with reusable workflows and custom strategies
Report
2027 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report
The U.S. housing market may begin to thaw in 2027, but improvement won't be universal. Changing affordability, borrower readiness, household finances and property-level costs will shape where opportunity emerges and who is positioned to act.
Experian's 2027 State of the U.S. Housing Market Report takes a closer look at the consumer, financial, and market signals behind these shifts, helping lenders look beyond national averages to understand where housing opportunity may be emerging, for whom, and under what conditions.
Inside the report
Explore the trends and data shaping the 2027 housing market, including:
- Mortgage demand and borrower readiness
- The true cost of homeownership
- Regional market conditions
- Household financial resilience
- Home equity and lending opportunity
- Renter sentiment and future demand
- Economic and consumer trends
Webinar
Reducing Mortgage Friction: How Income & Employment Verification is Evolving in 2026
In today’s competitive mortgage market, lenders are challenged to reduce origination costs, improve operational efficiency, and create a better borrower experience. This webinar explores how the Experian Verify Preview Report gives lenders visibility into employment and income record availability before ordering a full Verification of Income and Employment (VOIE) report. By providing transparency upfront, lenders can reduce unnecessary verification expenses, improve operational efficiency, and make more informed sourcing decisions.
What we’ll cover:
- How to determine record availability before ordering a full income and employment verification report
- Strategies for reducing unnecessary verification spending while improving operational efficiency
- Ways to improve borrower experience, accelerate loan processing, and reduce lender workload through smarter verification workflows
- How verification innovation supports broader mortgage automation and data-driven decisioning initiatives